Aviation Intelligence Reporter May 2020
Abandon Hope, All Ye Who Enter Here
The Long and Winding Roadmap
A Tale of Three Cities: State Aid in a Time of Revolution
Be the Change You Want to Be Palletised
Flying into a Slow Recovery
Southeast Asia Marches to Europe: Two Steps Forward,One Step Back
France, Aviation and State Aid: Une Histoire
Zero Carbon Aviation
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Abandon Hope, All Ye Who Enter Here
Hope is the last thing you lose, the Spanish say, but you lose that too. In which case,it looks like the aviation industry is gearing up fora very long pandemic. We cling to hope like a barnacle to the keel of a boat. Hope that we can get back to ‘normal’; hope that all this money that’s being thrown at the various bits of the industry will somehow bridge a liquidity gap; hope that we can start flying again soon with full aircraft and happy flyers. Clinging to hope, like it is a life vest found beneath our seat, we float in grief and enter Dante’s inferno, ignoring the sign above the door.
The Long and Winding Roadmap
No-one can doubt the industry’s determination to get back to normality. What is normal depends on what you do. For the airlines, airports, and ANSPs, it is to avoid damage and get back to flying their schedule, providing ground services or separating aircraft safely. For the airline trade associations, it is to protect their members, or o die in a ditch doing so, if necessary. Fort he regulatory bodies, it is regulating, or waiving regulations, as the case may be. For governments, it is bailing out as fast as they can.
For ICAO, it is to convene a committee and agree to form a sub-committee taskforce.
A Tale of Three Cities: State Aid in a Time of Revolution
It is the best of times; it is the worst of times… No, actually, if you believe some of the airlines of Europe it is the worst of times; it is an even worse time. In London, BA has announced that it will retrench a third of its staff; Lufthansa, said to be losing €1million an hour, is warning Berlin that it is contemplating going into credit protection – an equivalent move to entering Chapter11 in the USA – whilst Carsten Spohris telling the world that’s willneed to lose 10,000 jobs to survive. Meanwhile, in Paris, there are no timbrels, the guillotine has not been set up in Place de la Concorde and no airline aristocrat fears for his or her neck. AirFrance is picnicking, sur l’herbe, in the magic money tree forest.
Be the Change You Want to Be Palletised
Ghandi was the master of nonviolent resistance. He realised that the British Raj had the power, and the manpower, to crush his movement for change, so he simply went around them. The same tactic was used in Eastern Europe to help push the wall down in the late 1980s. Agitators, knowing that they could not fight the state from the front, simply
ignored it and started putting in place structures and citizen support mechanisms that showed that a better world was possible. Quie resistance, dignified and helpful that models a new world: maybe there is something in that for the aviation industry.
Flying into a Slow Recovery
While airlines, airports, and ANSPs line up for taxpayer support, attention is turning to how long this pandemic could last and what the global economy and aviation might look like post the virus. Traditionally aviation has been resilient to economic downturns. When major shocks have occurred such as 9/11 terrorist attacks and the global financial
crisis, the industry has recovered, and recovered strongly, within a couple of years.
Southeast Asia Marches to Europe: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
Over the last few years, intrepid travellers to China have learnt to eat xiao long bao in one mouthful, use the WeChat app, and to pronounce xie xie. Now, to prepare for post- coronavirus travel, they will need to learn to text‘555’in Thailand when they want to say ‘haha’, how to use the Line app, and under no circumstance tell a Malaysian that a bowl of their beloved laksa noodles originated in Singapore. In the post-coronavirus, shrinking supply lines world, Southeast Asia will have a new-found prominence.
France, Aviation and State Aid: Une Histoire
France,or as the Duke of burgundy calls it in Henry V,‘this best garden in the world’ has long treated aviation as a keen gardener might. It nurtures it. And what fruit: the Montgolfier brothers; Blériot; Roland Garros; SaintExupéry; Aero Postale; Concorde; Airbus…the list goes on and on. Indeed, arguably, there are few things the French love more than aviation. Exceptionalism and state aid aside, naturally.
Zero Carbon Aviation
ProfessorGeoffrey Lipman – Executive Director SUNX Malta
In a recent call for action, IATA asked fora loosening of the current CORSIA emission reduction rules to allow for‘airline survivalpostCovid-19’. ICAO States should only respond positively to this if they include one further amendment:
That the 2050 Carbon Reduction Ambition in CORSIA be changed from its
current‘halfof2005 pollution levels to ‘zero carbon by 2050’.