Aviation Intelligence Reporter November 2020
The Logistics of On-Loading Air Cargo Deregulation
The pandemic has brought into stark focus what has been clear for some time, but largely ignored. The drivers behind, and the realities of, passenger airlines are different to those of their all-cargo counterparts. The gap is widening. Passenger airlines carried 44% of goods by air before the pandemic, but that was when they had fleets of widebodied aircraft. And yet, the ‘freedoms of the air’ for both these very different business models are usually negotiated under the same Air Service Agreements, at the same time, and as part of a package. That needs to be rethought.
Next Year’s Work Plan: Sustaining Sustainable Aviation
There was a feeling earlier this year that all we could do was survive. But after the summer, the Commission has been cracking on with its to-do list. Inevitably, that will have a Covid flavour to it, but tasks are being ticked off. Everyone is now looking to the future. Well, to 2021 anyway. Mind you, in April, that was the very essence of long-range planning. Concentrating that thinking was the release in late October of the Commission’s work programme for next year. You will not spot the word ‘aviation’ in it at all, but nonetheless DG MOVE is taking its marching orders from it, even as it works on restoring as much aviation as it can. As the work programme puts it, DG MOVE is focused on: ‘repairing the world of today by shaping the world of tomorrow’.
Finding or Losing a Slot to Rethink the Slot Waiver
And so, it came to pass, after much huffing and puffing, after the recitation of many spells, as well as the application of many magic charms, the regulators of the world gave in to the mighty battalions of airline lobbyists arranged in neat lines beyond their walls, whilst the airline CEOs made suite, pressed and pursued them, charmed and beguiled them, gave them their promises of rubies and pearls and other treasures. Oh, yes, and a promise to behave this time. This time is different. Last time, the airlines got their slot waiver and immediately abused it. The airlines did not return unused slots – despite being sure of not losing their grandfather rights – so that competitors, or indeed cargo flights, could not use them.
Competition – Balls Up in the Air in Courts of Concern
There is much afoot in competition enforcement. Google recently appealed the European Commission’s £2 billion fine in the 2017 Google Shopping case. The EC was ahead of the curve, relying on market structure – dominance – alone as the basis for enforcement. Whether the European Court of Justice agrees remains to be seen. In the US, the pendulum has edged back toward market dominance and away from the Reagan-era focus on consumer benefits – prices – as the sole metric for evaluating behaviour. After years of hearings and investigations, in October the US DOJ finally brought an antitrust case against Google, based partly on market dominance.
Aviation is Missing the Biggest PR Coup in its History
If you were given the job of inventing the ultimate ethical, green, democratic, affordable aviation logistics system then chances are whatever you came up with would look remarkably similar to the long-range drone delivery programmes being pioneered in subSaharan Africa and among the remoter communities of East Asia. One company alone, Zipline, has made over 69,000 life-saving deliveries and in the process are empowering local talent and changing lives. Now these same services are being introduced to major cities and communities throughout more post-industrially developed countries.
Israel: The Middle East’s Prodigal Son
In early September, Saudi Arabia opened its airspace to El Al flights. Later that month, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates entered into the Abraham Accords, a set of bilateral agreements establishing full diplomatic relations with Israel, including respect for each other’s sovereignty, exchange of resident ambassadors, and bilateral exchange of air services, access to airspace and to tourism markets. Suddenly, Israeli tourists can visit Dubai; Muslims can make pilgrimages to holy sites in Israel. Recent reports indicate that Oman and Sudan will follow suit. These are remarkable developments for the aviation industry. Fatted calves have been lined up for slaughter across the aviation world. Except in Montreal.
Restarting European Tourism: A Long and Winding Road
On 12 October, about three months ago in Covid-Time, the EC’s tourism industry convened to develop a strategy. There is a joke there about tourism holding a virtual convention, but – nothing more to see – good taste requires that we move strictly on. Because marketing is a major part of tourism, that strategy should have a catchy name. We suggest The Road Forward. It focuses on resilience, green sustainability, and digital transition. It is more about the journey than the destination in other words.There was talk of producing a roadmap, but at the last minute, common sense revailed and a common approach was adopted instead.
Why Have We Mothballed the Mothballs?
Aviation is looking more and more like a theatre playing Beckett in repertoire. First up, there is The Unnameable with its heart-warming admonition: ‘You must go on. I can’t go on. I’ll go on.’ Then we perform Westward Ho: ‘Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better.’ The big finish, of course, is Waiting for Godot: ‘Nothing happens. Nobody comes, nobody goes. It’s awful.’ To do this over and over, in loop, is of itself, very Beckettian. Welcome to aviation, 2020 style.