Aviation Intelligence Reporter October 2020
Unconventional Thinking – Reform
SES2++ This Time With Feeling
Competing Visions of the New World Requires Vision of Competition Law
The Staff, United, Will Never Miss a Cliché
A Single Canadian Sky Looks No Easier to Achieve
The Farm-to-Table of Tourism
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Unconventional Thinking – Reform
Those with eyes to see and ears to hear might wonder what September’s industryrelated data portends. IATA’s Chief Economist, Brian Pearce, talking early in September on a vodcast [the usual declaration of interest here – Aviation Advocacy was involved] noted that the medium airline now has 6.3 months of cash left. The most cashed-up have about 18 months’ of cash, but half of all airlines have now got less than half a year’s worth. So the news that around Europe new lock-downs and other restrictions are being imposed that are expected to last for six months sounds much like a death knell for many airlines. Even if some parts of IATA are still hoping for bail-out relief (see below re Canada) or testing, the penny must be starting to drop that the only rational, long-term solution now has to be reform, not merely more relief.
SES2++ This Time With Feeling
The 1713 Treaty of Utrecht ceded to the UK a monopoly on the slave trade between Africa and the West Indies, the end of hostilities with Spain and, most enduringly, Gibraltar. The 2007 Treaty of Lisbon ceded to the UK continuing access to the world’s largest free trade and customs union, the continuing lack of hostilities with not only Spain, but France, Germany, Ireland and all the other European Union members and a say in that union. But, Gibraltar…? Oh dear. The rock became a stone in the shoe of European harmony. Brexit sorts that out, once and for all. With the UK leaving Europe, the diplomatic weaponising of Gibraltar crumbles. Whether that is more sharply felt by the Spanish or the British – both use it to stop unliked proposals – remains open.
Competing Visions of the New Requires Visions of Competition Law
There are three visions of what the aviation industry might look like post-Covid. The first view was the any-minute-now-back-to-usual view. Bailouts would do the trick as we see off the panic. That has morphed into the all-we-need-is-tests-to-show-flying-is-safe view. This is bailouts by way of shell-and-pea. Taxpayers fund a huge testing project. Airlines will not have to pay it back, or give away equity. IATA puts the cost at $10.00 a test. IATA expects a million passenger tests each day. Or, $300,000,000 per month. Last year, airlines carried 4.54 billion passengers, or about 373,150,000 monthly. A couple of months into this game you could pay for a tunnel across the Atlantic. A year in and we could be looking at a trans-Pacific tunnel. All paid for by the taxpayer.
The Staff, United, Will Never Miss a Cliché
Not one, not two, but eight, eight different staff associations – not unions, heaven forefend, professional staff associations – came out in late September to give the world the benefit of their opinion on the Covid crisis and how to fix aviation. Out they came – the pilots, the aircraft engineers, the controllers, the flight attendants, more controllers, the flight information association, the air traffic safety electronics personnel and more aeronautical information folk; the ECA, ATCEUC, IFATSEA, IFAIMA, EurECCA, ECA, IFISA and IFATCA. An alphabet soup of initials that sadly does not anagramise into anything sensible. It looks more like a cat walked across the keyboard. But what the letterhead loses in anagram power, the text makes up for in cliché. These professionals, who provide a safe and dedicated service – as opposed to which other professionals? – are a crucial part of the aviation ecosystem. Before, during and after the crisis, which is expected to be unpredictable, they deserve ‘priority attention’. It is, the press release is headed, ‘Time to Rethink!’
A Single Canadian Sky Looks No Easier to Achieve
Maggie Thatcher once noted that the problem with socialism is that eventually, you run out of other people’s money. It is a telling observation when it comes to ATM around the world, as most states apply their own preferred socialist model to ATM delivery. Some states prefer communism – the United Soviet States of America for example – but normally, it is socialism. There are two basic models – control of ownership, or control of outcome. If the state retains ownership the question is the degree of control. Some go for arm’s length; some go for arm’s length mixed with frequent political overview (and interference). Italy allows a minority share to be listed on the Milanese stock exchange, but the state maintains its controlling stake.
The Farm-to-Table of Tourism
To examine the health of tourism in the pandemic is to discover a panopticon of industries that Covid-19 has affected: airlines and airports, sure, but also buses, cruises and rail; the entertainment industries, dining, from fast to fancy; accommodation, from posh to backpacker. None remain untouched. It quickly atomised at the height of the crisis. The health of tourism – the livelihood of 12% of Europeans – also depends of the health of the individual parts of the industry. In the before times, these all existed in some sort of healthy competition and at the same time, in some sort of synergy with one another. How do we regain that synergy?