Aviation Intelligence Reporter March 2024
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Climate Change Mitigation Policy Part 1
By Chris Lyle, aviation consultant
As a complement to the recent UNFCCC COP 28 global stocktake of emissions, the
Tourism Panel on Climate Change sectorial stocktake found that tourist transport
emissions increased by 65% between 1995 and 2019. Air travel now contributes 26% of
all tourist trips but 75% of tourist transport emissions. It is the single, increasingly
dominant, contributor to tourism emissions, particularly at the international level.
Aviation emissions are governed in a global, regional and national framework. In this
web of regulators, ICAO is a crucial but weak link, circumscribed by its regulatory dictate.
Current mitigation measures are inadequate to achieve net zero emissions. Yes,
aviation is recognised as particularly difficult to decarbonise. There are few potential
technological alternatives to fossil fuels at least for some years to come. Uniquely, air
transport’s greenhouse gases, particulate matter and contrails are largely produced in
the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, complicating matters.
They Shoot Balloons, Don’t They?
US fighter aircraft have intercepted a high-altitude balloon in US airspace. No, we are
not several months behind the news, but yes, you are entitled to a sense of déjà vu.
This was yet another balloon of traversing US airspace one year after the world looked
on in wonder as a number of alleged Chinese ‘spy’ balloons were downed over US and
Canadian airspace. This most recent balloon, which was intercepted in late February
over Utah, was tracked, very closely, but was not shot down. It was allowed to continue
on its journey across US airspace and then into international airspace. That can only
beg one question: why?
A Pathway to Tying Up a Package for Package Travel
You do not need a guide and a map to see that tourism is important, at least in Brussels.
Is that because Brussels is one of those places made to be got out of, or because those
that are in Brussels are really keen for other Europeans to spend their money where they
would rather be, at their home destination? Politeness prevents a candid answer to this,
but find your seat, make sure you are comfortable and watch the unceasing parade of
the business of tourism activity. In mid-February there was an informal (well, ‘natch)
meeting of tourism ministers, organised by the Belgium presidency. How informal was
it? Many of the participants wore ties, but they were mostly tied five-in-hand, not the full
Windsor, so that was acceptable. That meeting discussed the need for an innovative
and sustainable tourism sector in Europe. You could sell tickets to an event like that.
Ask Ryanair, it is not the Start, it is the Finish, that Counts
Ryanair has been on a bit of roll in court recently. When the pandemic was raging and
the State Aid was, as if a quality of mercy, dropping like the gentle rain from heaven,
there was little Ryanair could do to stop the largesse. To mix metaphors, Ryanair’s
Michael O’Leary took on something of a King Canute-like posture, attempting to at least
slow the flow of aid. There were a number of reasons for the Ryanair position.
First, and by no means least, Ryanair itself did not get any direct aid (other than the
usual employee benefits/furlough schemes that applied in various European states) but
its competitors certainly did. Secondly, as O’Leary noted many times, State Aid was
distorting the market and more importantly than that, it was preventing some muchneeded consolidation. For all the bravado, all the brave talk about building back better,
we did not. States propped up their airlines, too scared to look into the brave new world
of a competitive aviation industry. Thirdly, Ryanair was not keen on the precedent being
set with this shower, this veritable tempest, of free money.
How to Make an Aviation Quilt
Quilting is a craft that seems to bring its own deep and complex emotional baggage.
Whitney Otto’s novel How to Make an American Quilt, later a film as well, layers
emotions and history and community into making a gift ‘where love resides’. That is not
an image that would normally spring to mind when thinking about IATA. But it is true.
IATA loves to sew in the love.
Quilting is a craft; aviation wants you to think that it is an industry, albeit a cottage one,
but sometimes, you have to wonder. The need for quilting comes baked into the system
by the States – it comes from Chicago and the UN Charter. States simply do not want
international regulation. They want a patchwork; it arises out of the bordered boxes
created around the world in the wake of decolonisation, the supposed sanctity of borders
and plenary authority each State has within those borders. It is not endemic only to
aviation. That bit, IATA could not change, even if it wanted to. That is the system that
IATA and the airlines have to work within.
The Singularity European Sky?
The centre of a black hole is a singularity, a point of infinite gravity; so dense, so dark,
nothing, not even light, can escape. Anyone involved in the Single European Sky
negotiations knows this feeling. But, recently, in the context of AI, singularity has taken
on a new meaning – that moment when humans create intelligence greater than their
own, when there will be technological and social breakthroughs and transition. Say it
softly, indeed do not even whisper it, but we might be nearly there for the SES. It is too
early to bank the technological breakthroughs, the social transition, but we stand on the
cusp of a hugely historic moment.
To create a moment of such importance, often what is needed is a counterforce so great
that in the tension, everything changes. At the risk of coming over all physics-y, could
that force had been Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary saying that he has given up on the SES
ever happening? Was that the moment?