Aviation Intelligence Reporter October 2024
- Γειά σου to Our New Commissioner (designate)
- Getting Competitive About the Draghi Report on Competition
- The US Too is Re-Thinking Competition
- Non-CO2: (Con)trail Wagging the Dog, or the Original Sin?
- The Rights and Wrongs of the Right to Fly
- Somebody is Playing With Fire
- The Tourism Portfolio – No Holiday For Commissioner (designate)
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Γειά σου to Our New Commissioner (designate)
Once upon a time, the Minister for Transport was A Player. Gifting roles on the boards of national transport companies was part of the job. Not for yourself, but for your mates. Before we privatised them. Best perk of the job. If you were appointed to the board of the central bank you were not given a Central Bank cheque book; but, if you were appointed to the board of the national airline, it was first class all the way, all the time. Neo-liberalism saw the end of those golden days. The first class all the way, all the time largesse continues to exist, of course, but now, others get to play Santa.
Getting Competitive About the Draghi Report on Competition
It was a long time coming, but finally, the former Italian prime minister, the former head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, presented his report on European competitiveness. Those of weak constitution are advised to look away now. The picture is not good. Europe risks being left behind by a combination of falling productivity (driven in part by falling population), energy supply concerns, disjointed defence capabilities, the responsibility for decarbonisation, the need to respond to a growing innovation gap with the countries of Asia and the US and an increasingly illiquid market that does not know how to respond to these changes. Add to that fragmentation and a lack of focus. Apart from that, everything is fine. All we need is a Europe-wide, joined-up, industrial strategy and a sensible approach to decarbonisation, or to quote Draghi, ‘a joint plan for decarbonisation and competitiveness’. You will not be surprised to note that it was this last bit that that the aviation industry seized upon.
The US Too is Re-Thinking Competition
As if to reinforce the point about the competitive nature of competition regulation, the US Department of Transportation announced early last month that it was opening an investigation into the legacy carriers’ frequent flyer programmes. The DoT is concerned about unfair, deceptive or anticompetitive practices. This is of itself interesting, but it also reflects a change in the way of thinking about anti-trust within the US administration. The pendulum is swinging away from the Chicago School of bone-dry economic theory to a more what-normal-people-would-expect sort of analysis. From price theory (that the market structure is what it is because that is the best outcome for the market players, aimed as they are at pricing to win market share) back to the market’s structure drives the behaviour of the players in it. If all this sounds very theoretical, think of it this way. For the last half century, from President Reagan’s reforms onwards, something like a frequent flyer scheme exists because the passengers want them. Before then and increasingly again now, the existence of FFPs is a tool created to control market forces.
Non-CO2: (Con)trail Wagging the Dog, or the Original Sin?
When we talk sustainability, we automatically think emissions. Net Zero by 2050 etc. But the 2015 Paris Accord aims, first, to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. On emissions, developed countries are urged to undertake economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets. So, the inclusion of aviation non-CO2 monitoring and reporting in the aviation ETS was an unanticipated outcome of the EU Green Deal, especially as these account for about two thirds of aviation’s contribution to global warming. It was the European Parliament which pressed for this initiative, not the Commission’s Green Deal ETS proposal, nor the member states, who love Corsia. The Council, playing with house chips, had to give something in the trilogues. By fluke, non-CO2 warming will now be addressed.
The Rights and Wrongs of the Right to Fly
By Jacques Mason – Independent Aviation Expert
Aviation, IATA intoned for a while there, is the business of freedom. As opposed to aviation being the business of say, rendition flights, or of carpet bombing. Those days are behind us, mostly. Now, IATA’s slogan is ‘connecting present and future generations for a better aviation industry’. Leaving aside the sideways reference to the mile high club there, you might just see that this slogan (and Siri, show me something written by a committee) tries to make aviation sound universal. Everyone has a right to fly – a constitutional right to fly, according to this legal scholar; everyone has a right to a holiday in the sun, according to the former DG of DG MOVE, Henrik Hololei. That everyone has a right to fly is an aviation industry mantra. The corollary being that everyone in the industry has a right to sell tickets and aircraft.
Somebody is Playing With Fire
One of the best ways for lobbyists to get their issue tabled with the European Commission is to exploit the Parliament’s written question wheeze. If you can find an MEP that is prepared to pose a question, in writing, to the Commission staff, you can start the ball rolling on your pet issue. All you need is an MEP willing to do your bidding and the issue is alive. How one gets a biddable MEP is at the core of the dark art of lobbying. It is like sausage factories. The less said the better.