Aviation Intelligence Reporter February 2022
The New Year: In Rhyme, if not in Reason
Nationalism: The Bass Drum of War
What Does Better Look Like?
The Aviation Alliance: What Might Be Behind the Curtain?
Airports: Finding the 5G Spot
How Green Was My Slot?
ICAO Reform: What About the Commercial Airlines?
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The New Year: In Rhyme, if not in Reason Twain said that history does not repeat, it rhymes Would he say that now, if he were of our times? We ride through viral wave after wave vertiginous Sometimes scything, always masking, the populous. So we get our jabs, and now, that third shot. That is new, not a repeat, not an afterthought.
Nationalism: The Bass Drum of War
When the drums of war beat, the bass drum, the beat that marks the time, is nationalism.That presents modern aviation with a particular dilemma. Our current system was born in a time of war. The war after the war to end all wars. Much has changed for aviation since 1944, but not its fundamental moorings in nationalism. Indeed, a delegate to the first Assembly of ICAO in 1947 would not recognise aviation today, but sadly, (almost certainly) he would be comfortable with the process and procedure of the next ICAO Assembly, to held later this year. Nationalism shapes and drives all parts of aviation still. Licencing, airspace, overflight, spectrum and much more besides.
What Does Better Look Like?
We have talked about better since the start of the pandemic. We all agreed then that we would build back better, just as soon as we could. Better: who does not like to think that they can make things better? Incumbents. By definition, the winners from the current arrangements. They do not like ‘better’ unless they approve of the change. They are only likely to do that in very limited circumstances: less competitors, less competition, fatter margins; that sort of thing. That might be summarised as building back better, for some. If you are a regulator that puts you in a difficult place. Your past has depended on incumbents. Your knowledge is based on incumbent behaviour, but the political instructions are to build back better, which inherently accepts building back differently.
The Aviation Alliance: What Might Be Behind the Curtain?
What is this, you may ask, a new trade association? Well, probably not, but most certainly a new pressure group. Welcome to the Aviation Alliance. We are flattered with your choice of name, colours and font too, by the way. The Aviation Alliance is a grouping of European airlines and airports, sorry, Airlines and Airports, ‘launched with the aim to support Fit for 55’. So far, so commendable, except, you may think, surely the airlines, and indeed even the Airlines, have an association that is foursquare behind Fit for 55. The airports, and the Airports too, also have an association foursquare behind Fit for 55. The Airlines four Europe and ACI Europe clubbed together with others to put together Destination 2050 – and trumpeted it as a single, joint industry proposal. Its unity is a key selling point. They have been actively pushing it ever since.
Airports: Finding the 5G Spot
It is appropriate that it is in 2022 that we are seeing the clash between the technological and communications breakthrough of the last century – fast transport – and the technological and communications breakthrough of this century – fast broadband. It was, after all, 1922 that is generally agreed to be the birth of Modernism, and its forward[1]looking cousin, Futurism. A century on, Futurism is largely discredited, reduced to a band of people such as Bezos, Branson and Musk, still in thrall to power and thrust. The new modern is all about wireless broadband. Wireless broadband is all about spectrum.
How Green Was My Slot?
The Australian former prime minister, Paul Keating – never knowingly short of an opinion – once dismissed talk of a conspiracy on the grounds that if ever faced with a choice between a conspiracy or self-interest, back self-interest, because you know that it will be in there fighting. If, on the other hand, you are faced with a choice between a conspiracy and a cock-up, back the cock-up, because they are easier to organise. Sadly, Keating’s tip for which to back in the case of a conflict between self-interest and a cock-up has never been recorded, but it would be sure to be colourful. Perhaps we should ask him to opine on the recent adventures of the Lufthansa Group and its attempt to strong-arm the Commission on the slot regulation.
ICAO Reform: What About the Commercial Airlines?
By Jacques Mason – Independent Aviation ConsultantIt
Would be wrong to say that there is a growing gap between the airline industry and its international governing body, ICAO. There is a yawning chasm. There are a few reasons for that. First, of course, is the obvious fact that ICAO is an intergovernmental agency and airlines, generally, are not government owned and controlled, anymore. In those days, things were different. Now, aviation administrations send staff to Montreal. Those staff are not directly connected to the airlines. Nevertheless, sometimes, if the airlines are lucky, they are consulted before a meeting, and indeed, sometimes asked to support delegations with staff. Once, airlines could have afforded senior staff being engaged in this way, but those days are gone. To the extent they are consulted now, however, it tends to be on very particular technical matters on which it is the airlines rather than the civil service that has the expertise. Engineers become policy wonks.