Aviation Intelligence Reporter – December 2018 / January 2019
The Plural of ‘Anecdote’ is not ‘Data’
A4E Learns How to Spell ATM
Urban Air Mobility: Only Possible if Poachers Become Gamekeepers
The Ingenious Nobleman Sir Henrik Quixote of Brussels
Drones: Life Used to be Life-Like, Now it’s More Like Show-Biz
How Do You Solve a Problem Like CORSIA?
Trade Policy and Trade Wars: 868 Reasons Why it is Complicated
If I Should Fly, Think Only This of Me
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The Plural of ‘Anecdote’ is not ‘Data’
Common sense, Einstein once noted, is a body of prejudice laid down in the mind prior to the age of 18. The other thing about common sense, wits observe, is that it is not all that common. Nonetheless, common sense is what all sides call upon, and assert they are relying upon, when opining on most things to do with the regulation of aviation. Except, obviously, when considering the reform of ICAO. No, then it is doctrine all the way. If you consider inertia to be a doctrine. Do not expect an editorial in the Economist critical of ICAO to move hearts inside the industry. Still, generally, common sense it is. Except that Einstein, once again, may have been right.
A4E Learns How to Spell ATM
Since its inception, the A4E has had striking air traffic controllers in its crosshairs. Resolving this plague on airline productivity and profitability – fundamental issues for Europe’s airlines – made it up in lights as one of the founding pillars of the A4E. It had equal billing with airport charges and taxes. Early thinking was along the lines of declaring ATM an essential service, or to equate controllers with soldiers, having no right to strike. The Commission had the temerity to point out that the right to strike is a fundamental one in Europe, and anyway, we have worked for 20 years to stop people thinking that controllers are civil servants, attention needed to move to working around the issue instead. Let them strike, was the thinking, but not in our piece of the sky.
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Urban Air Mobility: Only Possible if Poachers Become Gamekeepers
It is easier to predict what is going to happen 30 years from now than two years from now. No-one will remember thirty years from now if you get it wrong. So, not surprisingly, Roland Berger’s November 2018 report on the Urban Air Mobility market forecasts 100,000 passenger drones could be in the air worldwide by 2050. Easy peasy. But then they become braver.
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The Ingenious Nobleman Sir Henrik Quixote of Brussels
In the summer, we noted that the efforts to get approval for a third runway at Heathrow were Shakespearian in scope and endeavour and deserved telling properly: Richard the Third Runway was our attempt. The Single European Sky, on the other hand, looks increasingly quixotic. Which begs the question of what Cervantes might have done if a Single European Sky was in his sights. This is our humble proposal.
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Drones: Life Used to be Life-Like, Now it’s More Like Show-Biz
Are we close to peak drone? The last week of November saw three simultaneous conferences on drones, organised by the airports, the ANSPs and the regulators. Speaking at this year’s Commission and EASA sponsored High Level Conference on drones – spoiler alert, there was a declaration – the Commissioner for Transport, Violetta Bulc, set down the standard she is expecting the industry to deliver. Zero tolerance for accidents. That is a goal in her hands to achieve. Simply ban all flying. Sorted. Wrong, but sorted. This remains an experimental area and there will need to be testing and trials. It also confuses two very different but nonetheless complementary concepts.
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How Do You Solve a Problem Like CORSIA?
December sees the annual meeting of the parties to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – known as the Convention of the Parties, or COP. At COP 21, in Paris, in November 2015, the parties agreed the Paris Accord, to hold global warming well below 2°. How is that working out for you? It started out with such optimism. With the US withdrawing from the Paris Accord, this year, at COP24 in Katowice, Europe intends Sending A Message. It has agreed an ambitious plan to decarbonise Europe. No part of Europe’s economy will be spared. Not so fast. What about aviation? Since the 1999 Kyoto meeting of team UNFCCC, aviation has been held apart. Aviation is special, after all. Instead of joining the mainstream, ICAO was delegated to devise a comprehensive plan to address aviation emissions. They produced an offset programme of extremely questionable value, with the very funky name of CORSIA.
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Trade Policy and Trade Wars: 868 Reasons Why it is Complicated
These are febrile times. The drums of a trade war beat increasingly loud. Both sides are posturing in ways that scare markets. The posturing has had one helpful effect – oil is nearer $20 a barrel than $100 a barrel. That is good for airlines. There is another more inconvenient truth – structurally, aviation is the poster boy of those in favour of a trade war. Airlines are national entities given life by nationalism. But to say so out loud is to be accused of being antediluvian. Step forward IATA, which plays the role in this imbroglio of the legacy carriers’ useful idiot. The DG of IATA, Alexandre de Juniac, has been dispatched around the world to talk of ‘the business of freedom’ and the perils of trade wars. He is very openly open trade. In the meantime his members continue to push for ways to stifle international competition.