Aviation Intelligence Reporter March 2022
War: What is it Good For?
Airspace in a Time of War: What is it Good For?
Civil War: What is it Good For?
Spooks: What Are They Good For?
Watch This (Air)space
Canary in the Ice Mine
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War: What is it Good For?
As modest stillness and humility:
But when the blast of war blows in our ears,
Then imitate the action of the tiger;
Henry V goes on for a page or so, at least according to Shakespeare, encouraging his (English) troops to do things like ‘fill up the breach with our English dead’ which is, to say the least, an interesting motivational strategy, but you get the point. We have moved, more rapidly than most imagined, from peace to war. It is impossible for that not to have a real impact on civil aviation around the world. Flight paths are being diverted, fuel prices are up and we can forget about sustainability for a while. At a time when European aviation can least afford it, there is a new tranche of uncertainty in the air.
Airspace in a Time of War: What is it Good For?
At times like this, the political nature of aviation becomes apparent. Try as we might to make aviation a commercial concern, there is no disputing that in a time of war, sovereignty is impossible to ignore. The Chicago Convention was written in a time of war; we see it in action today, doing what its framers understood best. The reality is that if a state wants to close its airspace, it can do so. If a state wants to start a war, it can do so, and then it is very dangerous for an industry that is built on safety to do anything but avoid that airspace, regardless of its official status. Sadly, there are also non-state actors that can have the same impact.
Civil War: What is it Good For?
Never one to miss a Biblical reference, Abe Lincoln realised ‘a house divided against itself cannot stand’. It might be time for the industry to look in the mirror. Civil war has broken out, and like all good civil wars, it has many fronts. Brother against brother, airline against airline, airport against airport, airline and airport alliances against airport and airline alliances, family against family, new transversal trade association against established trade associations. Any minute now it will dissolve into everyone for themselves.
Spooks: What Are They Good For?
For those readers with an interest in the secret world of spooks and tradecraft and who are not of a nervous disposition please continue reading. Others among you, please look away now. You are the head of a well organised, well-funded and effective military intelligence department of a West European country. Your spy satellites tell you – and this information is validated by assets on the ground – that a belligerent power has moved batteries of high-performance surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) across the border of a neighbouring state. You have a duty to warn your national airlines that it is no longer safe to fly into or over the region. In an ideal world the airlines will then share this information with all other airlines via the ICAO Aviation Security Point of Contact Network and there will be a coordinated response by the entire industry to avoid the area.
Watch This (Air)space
Who controls the airspace? That is not such an easy question anymore. Who controls the bit between the grass and the tops of the trees? Who controls the bit around the moon? What about deep space? Three recent developments make this question harder to answer and more urgent. In the US, the DC Circuit Court heard the case of Brennan (RaceDayQuads) v Dickson (FAA), which threatens to undo the FAA’s Remote ID regulations – essential for large-scale BVLOS operations. There may have been procedural improprieties on the part of the FAA, but the judges focussed on whether the Remote ID regs raise issues with warrantless search, for example by requiring drone operations on a 100-acre farm with no safety or security implications to broadcast a signal allowing anyone to know the operator’s ID and geolocation.
Canary in the Ice Mine
Two years ago, ‘travel for pleasure’ meant grocery shopping. One year ago, with the release of the first vaccine, it expanded slightly to an uneasy alliance of the vaccinated vs the world. Since then, life has, for better or worse, started to return to something resembling the status quo the world knew in the summer of 2019. This means the lens is turned back upon travel and tourism. The issues tourism faced then; it faces now.
Tags: #Russia, Airlines, ATM, Aviation Industry, EU, NATO, Ukraine