Aviation Intelligence Reporter December 2025-January 2026
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A Tale of Two Airshows, A Tale of Two Continents
If you attended the Dubai Airshow in mid-November, the difference between what is happening in aviation in Europe and in the rest of the world – the middle East in particular – could not have been clearer. It was a lesson in contrasts. It was the best of times; it was the worst of times. Not only was it a balmy 32 degrees in Dubai and approaching zero degrees with a light dusting of snow in most of Europe, the prevailing mood around the halls, around the chalets and on the runway was also as hot-versus-cold as the thermometer.
At Le Bourget this year, the mood was one of waiting and watching. Everybody is watching everybody else to see what might happen next. Everyone wants to know what the next form of propulsion will be, what the implications of that are for the airframe and the airport, and what the market will do. Europe is also watching the world go past it in their new eVTOL devices. There is a lot of talk, but European AAM is quietly checking out and heading to the places with money and favourable regulations.
Carbon Leakage in the Middle East
Unless you have been living under a rock for the last decade or so, you will know that the European legacy carriers cry themselves to sleep at night by thinking about ‘carbon leakage’. This is when passengers choose to fly via a hub just outside Europe (in the case of Istanbul) or seven or so hours outside Europe (in the case of the Gulf carriers) and build in the inconvenience of a transfer through enormous airports, simply to avoid paying for the costs imposed on Europe’s carriers by their sustainability obligations when offering a direct flight. Once upon a time, direct flights were able to demand a premium over transfer flights, but clearly that was before the joy of denying the climate change issues was factored in. It is much more manly to fly for longer, and do a transfer, if it means you can show that you do not care about carbon emissions. The logic is precarious, to say the least, and in many cases the solutions suggested, including a carbon border adjustment mechanism, seem complex and ineffectual. Still, everyone gets to have a good old moan, so it not a complete waste of time.
Droneboat Diplomacy
Gunboat diplomacy was the way the rich and powerful asserted their riches and power over the poor. It was a clean and efficient way to remind the world of who was who and what was what. It was also a way to ensure and solidify Imperial power. Gunboat diplomacy was very much a one-way street. There was not much the recipient of the gunboat’s presence could do to resist it. Part of the aim was the propaganda win, after all. And it put the natives in their place, or, at least, reminded them of their place. Trade by gunpoint. Chicago marks the transition from Empire to State for aviation.
We live in much more untidy times. However, there has recently been a rise in the perceived need of nation states to reassert their national power, national identity and national sovereignty. That should warm the hearts of the draughtsmen of the Chicago Convention. But we also live in a time of hybrid, asymmetric warfare. The means to assert national identity, or the means to repulse the national posturing of larger threatening states, is no longer determined by a simple the-mightier-are-righter calculation. Guerilla warfare makes the traditional means of asserting military might seem flat-footed and maladroit. Five €100 drones coming across the threshold of an airport can see five €100,000,000 jets being scrambled. That is a win for the intruders. It also sees immediate calls for strengthening national borders and reasserting national sovereignty. That too would warm the cockles of the Chicago draughtmen’s hearts.
From the Desk of John-Paul Sartre
Big Cargo Drones: Small Revolution
Philip Butterworth Hayes, Editor, Unmanned Aviation
Anybody who has been in this business for more than a few years will have developed a list of aviation business ideas which they know will one day take the industry by storm but have not yet taken hold. Low cost, long-haul airlines. The all-electric airport. Personal jets. Regional air taxis. Unducted fans. Hydrogen power. Many of these have been tried but for whatever reason the business case has not quite been there. Or not there yet, as their boosters will insist.
But in one corner of the industry the stars are starting to align for a concept which has been in the waiting room of the aviation industry for at least a decade – the large cargo drone. Three things are needed for real disruption in this industry: quantifiable market demand, money and regulatory approval.
Ryanair’s Grand Project
Never underestimate how keen, how determined, Ryanair is to overfly France during ATCO strikes. All the usual means of resolving the issue: lobbying the Commission directly; lobbying via the A4E; a petition of nearly three million signatures; public naming and shaming? Nada. The time for drastic action is now.
There are two suggestions on the drawing board. Both are breathtaking in their scope, their audacity, their creativity. The first one was made public by CEO Michael O’Leary in the UK newspaper the Telegraph, so it was not seen by many. Most missed what will be a glorious development. Like the spider which spins a web across the bottom of a slippery dip in a children’s playground, if they can pull this off, they will eat like kings. The only way to sort out the problem of striking French controllers and the subsequent ban on overflights, according to O’Leary, is to send in a gunboat! What a wonderful suggestion! Who knew O’Leary had pretentions to imperial overreach?
Using AI to Digitise the Most Analogue of Industries
The tourism sector stands, as it so often seems to do, at an inflection point. All pervasive AI – Wikipedia on steroids – has shouldered its way into nearly every aspect of our lives. Travel is no exception. Recent industry studies and reports reveal a convergence around three broad trends: rapid institutional adoption; cautious and burgeoning consumer acceptance; and a shift toward deeply personalised, autonomous ‘agentic’ systems.
AI adoption within the tourism industry is shifting from experimentation to structured implementation. According to the 2025 Canary Technologies hospitality survey, 73% of hoteliers now believe AI will have a ‘significant or transformative’ impact on the sector, and 61% report that AI is either already affecting operations or will do so in the coming year. This confidence, whether foolhardy or not, is reflected in updated resource allocation: 77% of hospitality organisations plan to dedicate between 5% and 50% of their IT budgets to AI, signalling a seismic shift from theoretical interest to investment strategy. The primary applications emerging in hotels include AI-powered guest messaging, multilingual virtual assistants, automated check-in and check-out systems, and tools for revenue optimisation and demand forecasting. Simply put, ‘fewer employees, more money’.
Lean Your Seat Back in Anger
With apologies to Oasis
This year we have seen a number of revivals. The second most surprising was Oasis, mounting a comeback tour that has made millions for the band. The most surprising is that of the premium classes in aircraft, making millions for the airlines.
Slip inside the eye of your mind Don’t you know you might find A better place to play You said that you’d never been But all the other cabins you’ve seen Will slowly fade away So start a revolution from your flatbed Cos the legroom you had, it went to your head Step into First, summertime’s in bloom Stand up beside the caviar Take that look off your angry avatar You ain’t ever gonna burn your heart out So Economy can wait, never again, it’s too late as we’re walking on by Your soul starts to fly, ‘Lean your seat back in anger,’ I heard you say Take me to the place where you go Where nobody knows if it’s night or day Please don’t put your life in the hands Of a Ryanair crew Who’ll throw it all away So start a revolution from your flatbed ‘Cos the legroom you had, it went to your head Step into First, summertime’s in bloom Enjoy the lounge, the extra leg room Zone 1 Priority kills the gloom You ain’t ever gonna burn your heart out So Economy can wait, never again, it’s too late as we’re walking on by Your soul starts to fly,‘Lean your seat back in anger,’ I heard you say So Economy can wait, never again, it’s too late as we’re walking on by Your soul starts to fly, ‘Lean your seat back in anger,’ I heard you say So Economy can wait, never again, it’s too late as we’re walking on by Your soul starts to fly, ‘Lean your seat back in anger,’ I heard you say I heard you say, ‘at least not today.’