Aviation Intelligence Reporter February 2026
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The Roadrunner’s Guide to Predicting the Future
Predictions are very difficult, runs the old saw, particularly if they are about the future. Who said this first is disputed. Some say Neils Bohr, who made the tactical error of saying it in Danish, or the cartoon-ishly named Yogi Berra, a baseball player. Whoever said it first, the underlying truth is rock solid. Nonetheless, it helps, when making predictions, to use guidelines to help steer your thinking. Yogi Bear (the cartoon character, not the baseball player) provides some help in this, with his catchcry ‘You cannot harm me, I am government property’, a slogan many in the aviation industry have taken to heart, but it is not Yogi Bear, but another cartoon character, the Roadrunner (and his poor desperate chaser, Wile E Coyote) that we should look to for guidance.
How to Win a War
Long, long ago, in a paradigm far, far away, Europe outsourced its defence. That paradigm is now gone. This is the new world. Some harsh realities have become very clear. If you work in aerospace and defence, that is good news. This is the time for Europe’s aerospace industry to step forward, to shine. If you could buy shares in trade associations, you would go long on the ASD. ASD, the organisation that represents European aerospace, security and defence players, has been somewhat under the radar for most of the aviation industry. There, but not front and centre. Not, if you will, on the front line. A front line that is changing very rapidly. ASD is now stepping forward.
Be Prepared for the World as it Might Be
We must take the world as it is, not as we want it to be. But as Tom Lehrer reminds us, ‘Be Prepared’ is not only the boy scout’s marching song, as through life they march along, it is good advice. In these times, or as the Chinese curse would have it, in these interesting times, it behoves us in the aviation world to be prepared for what the real world might dish up. There is no good reason to assume that we will be exempt from the chaos around us. Given what is happening more generally, we need to be asking ourselves some very fundamental questions: could the US withdraw from Chicago Convention? Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Could we see a brave new post Chicago world after all? It sounds so far-fetched; but still… invasion of Greenland, anyone?
How Disruptive Will Disentangling the Global Supply Chain Be?
Philip Butterworth Hayes, Aviation Industry Analyst
What will historians call this era? Among PhD students tasked with analysing global trade agreement patterns during the mid-2020s ‘The Age of Great Disentanglement’ will be one likely candidate.
My Airline is Bigger than Your Airline
Lufthansa, cementing its place in the pantheon of legacy carriers, wants you to know that it turns 100 this year. This exciting announcement was breathlessly made via all the usual communications channels. The brains trust at Lufthansa communications has coined a slogan for this epoch-making year: ‘We are the Journey’. Paying customers might think they take the journeys, but why quibble? Come along on this journey, we are told in the official announcement, along with staff, passengers and ‘fans’. Fans? How cool. Is there a cheer squad? A ‘friends of Lufthansa’ lounge at FRA, like art galleries provide? We are being told that this will be ‘a year of experiences’. That is one way to put it. Presumably those experiences are over and above the act of buying a ticket and actually, you know, experiencing the delivery of a transport service. Sorry, mobility.
It is Going to Take More Than Five Hours to Resolve the 261 Debate
Surprising absolutely no-one, the discussion about Regulation 261 is back on the agenda. Or is that still on the agenda? It all looked so easy for a moment – the Council had agreed that five hours was a more sensible time for delays before compensation kicked in. Not so fast. Parliament had other ideas. At second reading early in January, Parliament comprehensively rejected the Council position. How comprehensively? The vote was 632 to 15, with nine abstentions. That comprehensively. The vote came about because the trilogue procedure failed. So, we are heading into rare air – a Conciliation Committee. Grab your procedure manuals and walk this way.